Avocado will overtake pineapples and mangoes as the most commercialized tropical fruit by 2030, when production is expected to reach 12 million tons, with up to 3.9 million tons exported.
That is according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 report (FAO).
Given the high average unit prices of avocado, the total value of world avocado exports would reach an estimated 8.3 billion dollars, thus positioning the avocado as one of the most valuable fruits on the market.
Broad world demand and lucrative export unit prices continue to be the main drivers of this growth, stimulating substantial investments in the expansion of the production area in major producing and emerging countries.
Avocado production has so far been concentrated in a small number of regions and countries.
The Future Of Avocado
The top 10 producing countries currently account for almost 80% of global production.
Although new growing areas are emerging rapidly, Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to account for nearly 74% of the avocado production in 2030 because the region has favourable conditions to grow this fruit.
Production in Mexico, the world’s largest producer and exporter, is expected to grow by 5.2% annually over the next ten years due to continued growth in demand in the United States, Mexico’s main export market.
So, despite growing competition from emerging exporters, Mexico is expected to continue increasing its world export share to 63% of the total in 2030, according to the report.
The United States and the European Union, where consumer interest in avocados is driven by their healthy benefits, will continue to be the top importers for the next decade, accounting for 40% and 31% of world imports in 2030, respectively.
However, imports are also increasing rapidly in many other countries, such as China and some Middle Eastern countries, and, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index of all importers, the concentration of imports is gradually decreasing, the document states.
Avocados In Kenya
Kenya is the world’s third largest producer of avocados. It’s also Kenya’s leading fruit export, accounting for nearly one-fifth of its total horticultural exports.
But Kenya only exports 10% of its total avocado production. By comparison, Chile exports 55% and South Africa exports 60%
Avocado is grown in several parts of Kenya and about 70% of avocado production is by small-scale growers. They grow it for subsistence, local markets, and export purposes.
The avocado export market in Kenya is dominated by five major exporters: Kakuzi, Vegpro, Sunripe, Kenya Horticultural Exporters, and East African Growers.
These companies source their avocados primarily from smallholder farmers, although some firms also source from larger growers or own plantations.
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