Incumbents win about 85 percent of the time. Anyone considering running against an incumbent must carefully consider whether it is feasible. A long serving incumbent is even more difficult to defeat than a newly elected one.
Here are some factors to consider when determining whether a challenge will be successful.
The first step is to assess the overall political climate. The composition of the electorate changes from time to time. People move into and out of a voting block, and these demographic changes can result in a change in elected leaders.
The Voters General Mood
Another factor is the electorate’s general mood. In general, incumbents should be concerned about two factors. The first is whether the electorate believes things are on the “right track.”
The other question is whether the electorate believes the incumbent is concerned about them. The voters’ perception that the incumbent is off track and that no one cares about them is a dangerous combination for any incumbent.
An incumbent’s job performance will be viewed positively or negatively by the electorate. Polling, focus groups, and other methods can be used to reduce those perceptions to a rating. The rating indicates whether voters favorably or unfavorably view the incumbent.
It is widely assumed that if an incumbent has an unfavorable rating of more than 40% in a competitive region, he or she is vulnerable to defeat.
Some areas aren’t competitive in a general election, but they can be a battleground in the primaries. The considerations listed above apply to both types of elections.
Defining The Opponent
Every incumbent has a voting record. A contestant must begin early and thoroughly research the incumbent’s record. Following the collection of data, the contestant must make a decision on how to portray the opponent.
This must be completed before the incumbent can define themselves. A contestant should issue a challenge. Not only must the incumbent’s record be challenged, but a new plan must also be proposed. There is only one reason that voters are willing to remove someone from office.
The reason for this is that they have found someone better.
Start Early
The impact of beginning early cannot be taken for granted. Many first-time candidates believe that the campaign season has officially begun.
It’s similar to baseball spring training. That is a blunder. The day they are elected, incumbents begin campaigning for the next election. They have a method of generating free publicity simply by carrying out their official duties.
Contestants want to get ahead of that before an incumbent gains momentum. The incumbent will want the election to put more emphasis on their issues. They will be the issues that the incumbent feels most at ease discussing.
Setting The Agenda
The contestant should make an effort to set the agenda. The contestant should try to compel the incumbent to discuss issues on which the incumbent is weak.
The contestant must be able to draw a distinction and demonstrate why they should be elected. It is possible to defeat an incumbent if you work hard and have a plan.
The electorate must be shown a clear difference between the candidates on issues defined by the contestant. The contestant must explain why they are running for office and why they are the superior candidate to the incumbent as they hold rallies.
A candidate should be true to themselves. People can detect a scam or a project. Long-term political imagery engineering is nearly impossible. As a result, don’t even try.
Politicians who tried to be someone they were not are littered throughout the political landscape. Don’t try to pad your resume or lie about your qualifications. Voters will see right through it.
Define Yourself Or Your Opponent Will Do It For You
You must define not only yourself, but also your opponent. You must also choose and define the race’s issues. If you establish the tone of the campaign early on, your opponent will be forced to defend.
You must establish the overall tone of the campaign in the manner that you desire. Don’t fall into the trap of embracing your opponent’s account of the election.
A Consistent And Understandable Message
You must communicate in a consistent and understandable manner.
Developing a consistent and comprehensible message is the greatest approach to ensure that voters remember you. Consistency entails sticking to the message throughout the campaign. Voters despise “bandwagon hoppers.”
It is OK to change your mind about an issue if fresh information becomes available. Voters will recognize this. If you screw up or make a wrong comment, accept it right away and move on. It is critical for any candidate not to give contradictory messages to voters.
The campaign should establish and stick to its message from the start.
Create A Good “Stump Speech.”
Every candidate should prepare a decent “stump speech” that they can deliver whenever they address a group of voters. The speech should include information on who you are, why you are running for office, what topics you believe are essential in the campaign, and why people should vote for you.
The speech pieces should be adaptable enough to allow you to fit the length of the speech inside the time provided.
The worst thing you can do is go on and on past the time limit. It conveys to voters, among other things, that you are disorganized.
A “stump speech” is anything that should be memorized and given without notes.
Do Not Try To Run The Campaign And Be The Candidate At The Same Time
Each candidate must learn how to delegate authority. A contestant must carefully choose who they wish to nominate to various roles. The last thing a candidate wants is for them to end up as a lone ranger.
The campaign team could be made up of volunteers. Professionals may be needed for larger campaigns. It is impossible for a candidate to do everything that is required to win an election, no matter how hard he or she is prepared to work.
The goal of a grassroots campaign is to broaden support for the candidate. This can only be accomplished by enlisting the help of others.
Some candidates are either unable to transmit authority effectively or are wary about entrusting too much responsibility to others.
Successful candidates understand how to delegate tasks.